March concluded with President Lula's trip to Japan and Vietnam for the negotiation of trade agreements and the promotion of Brazil's closer ties with Asian countries, amid the ongoing trade war between China and the United States and the increasing importance of Asia in the global economy.
The first stop was in Japan, a country that has hosted him on five occasions during his three terms.
The official visit took place during the celebrations of the 130th anniversary of the start of bilateral diplomatic relations and resulted in the signing of ten agreements, notably, the Japan-Brazil Strategic and Global Partnership Action Plan for 2025-2030. This plan envisions biennial meetings between high-level representatives to discuss strategic topics such as climate change and economic, scientific, and technological cooperation.
From a commercial perspective, in 2024, Japan was Brazil's third-largest trading partner in Asia and the third-largest destination for Brazilian exports to the region, following China and Singapore, with a trade exchange of US$11 billion and a surplus of US$148 million for Brazil. Data from the Brazilian Central Bank indicates that, in 2023, Japan accounted for a total of US$35 billion in direct investments in the country, holding the ninth-largest stock of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Brazil.
Despite the apparent strength of these numbers, a more detailed analysis reveals a negative trend in recent trade relations. This is observed in the continuous decline in the volume of new investments in greenfield and brownfield projects over the past few decades, reaching the lowest level in annual comparisons. Another point of concern is the loss of market share for Brazilian export products, such as sugarcane ethanol, which saw its share cut in half, in contrast to the increasing market presence of U.S. corn ethanol. This dynamic occurs amid discussions about raising the ethanol blend in Japanese gasoline.
On the positive side, there is potential for recovery and growth, and the number of cooperation agreements announced during the Brazil-Japan Economic Forum indicates the possibility of reversing the decline.
The event, which concluded the official program, was attended by the Brazilian President, the Prime Minister of Japan, and other high-ranking members of the Japanese government, as well as 10 Brazilian state ministers, representatives from Congress, and over 500 businesspeople from both countries. During the event, more than 80 documents were announced, including contracts, memorandums of understanding, and letters of intent between government and private entities.
The agreements announced included a contract signed for the sale of 15 E190-E2 jets from Embraer to All Nippon Airways (ANA), with an option for five additional jets – a deal that could reach R$ 10 billion. Several other sectors such as sanitation, energy, education, aerospace, technology, agriculture, construction, healthcare, and public safety were also included in agreements that could lead to increased Japanese investments in Brazil. Furthermore, trade relations between the two countries could deepen significantly with the advancement of a Japan-Mercosur Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), for which formal negotiations were jointly requested by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI in Portuguese) and by Keidanren, representative of the Japanese industry, at the end of the event.
Another sector celebrating advancements is livestock, which took a crucial step in the process of opening the Japanese market by reaching an agreement with the local government to soon send a mission to Brazil to inspect meat-packing plants and the sanitary system.
In the second phase of the presidential trip, in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, the livestock export sector gained further prominence. Representatives from this sector made up a significant part of the Brazilian business delegation, consisting of several dozen executives. The agenda in Vietnam indicates that the relationship between the two countries, which began 35 years ago, is still incipient but promising. Since Lula's first visit to Vietnam in 2008, there has been significant growth in bilateral trade, which increased from US$534 million that year to US$7.7 billion in 2024 (a record high), with a positive trade balance of US$405 million for Brazil.
Brazil exports more to Vietnam than to Portugal, the United Kingdom, France, or Paraguay, with Vietnam ranking fifth among the destinations for Brazilian agribusiness products. The country accounts for about 70% of the soybeans imported by Vietnam and is the main supplier of pork, as well as the second-largest supplier of chicken and cotton. The goal of reaching a commercial transaction volume of US$15 billion by 2030 is based on two pillars: the growth of Southeast Asia, a region that is emerging as the most dynamic in the world, and Vietnam itself, which has been exhibiting the highest growth rates in the region, with 7% in 2024 and 8% expected for 2025. Additionally, there is a rapid modernization of the legal framework aimed at reinforcing its status as a market economy and creating a more favorable investment environment for foreigners, especially in the banking and infrastructure sectors.
The Brazilian presidential trip resulted in significant advancements for the Brazilian livestock sector, starting with the announcement of a memorandum of understanding for the construction of two processing plants for beef, pork, and poultry in Vietnam, with an investment of US$100 million from JBS. The aim is for the processing plants to primarily source Brazilian beef, pork, and poultry, with products being distributed not only to the Vietnamese market but also to other markets in Southeast Asia. Although Brazilian pork and poultry already make up a significant portion of Vietnam's imports from Brazil, the local market had been closed to beef for a decade, which is why the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock received the warmest applause during the Brazil-Vietnam Business Forum.
The supply of both civilian and military aircraft manufactured by Embraer was also a key topic during the visit to Vietnam. The Vietnamese Prime Minister expressed the desire to have maintenance and training workshops in the country as part of the negotiation package for the acquisition of commercial jets by Vietnam Airlines and C-390 cargo planes by the Vietnamese Armed Forces, which, amid a global arms race, seek to start modernizing its fleet.
It is not possible to predict how much and which of the topics discussed during the presidential visits will progress, especially considering the uncertainties caused by the tariff war initiated by the United States and intensified by China's retaliation.
Despite the temporary suspension of the high tariffs imposed by the United States, which had significantly affected Asian countries like Japan and Vietnam, keeping elevated tariffs on China may lead to a reconfiguration of international trade and reorganization of the global production structure – which currently has Asia as its major production center – in a profound, prolonged, and possibly permanent way.
Jun Makuta is a partner at TozziniFreire Advogados and head of the Japan Practice Group. He was part of the Brazilian delegation that accompanied the president in his trip to Japan and Vietnam during the last week of March 2025.
